LOST-Theories.com

No real answers here, just more questions…

— Billy_G_Oat

I’m new to this forum, though I’ve spent the last few days catching up on some of the more popular and highly rated theories. I’ve yet to notice any particular explanation of the freighter folk… who are they, why are they “chosen” for the freighter mission… how are they related to the island, its inhabitants or the 815 survivors? Aside from the generic “Widmore/Paik chose them for x” there have been no theories about their specific purpose. I have a theory, though it’s purely speculative at this point.

Before I get to my theory, I just wanted to mention that there are a couple things I’ve never really seen addressed on the show and I think it would be interesting to discuss them at some length.

First, I’m surprised no one has ever really dealt with survivor syndrome. Oh, sure, Jack feels responsible when someone is hurt while under his watch, but none of the 815 survivors have shown any real symptoms of guilt for surviving such a horrible disaster. With such flawed histories, each of the main characters has been severely troubled by guilt and regret, yet none of them have asked, “Why did I survive?”

Second, if I crashed on an island, I’d attempt to learn as much as possible about my co-survivors. Who are they? How did they come to be on the plane? What did they do before the crash? How would their skills and talents be useful on the island? In a short conversation between John and Hurley, they might both realize that Hurley owned the box company that John worked at. A brief discussion between Jack and Shannon would reveal that Jack chose to operate on Sarah instead of Shannon’s father. The connections are numerous and through simple circumstance several should become obvious, leading to more revelations about their connections.

The only real obvious and important correlation between the survivors was made by Sawyer when he was speaking to Jack and realized that he had met Jack’s father in the bar. It’s truly difficult to believe that so many people with so many off-island connections would not stumble on these coincidences through small talk. Sure, they haven’t been on the island that long. Sure, many of the 815 survivors are often separated by on-island drama and several are keen on keeping their pre-island lives secret for obvious reasons… but anyhow, I digress.

What I really wanted to point out was a loose and unsubstantiated theory I have. There has been much debate about the identity of the Oceanic Six, and with ABC’s recent promo, it seems clear who they are. Damon and Carlton, however, have avoided the questions posed about the identity of the six, even stating that they have no control over ABC’s promotions and saying only that we’ve seen the six survivors in the first few episodes of Season 4. Isn’t it still possible that Ben Linus could, with his seemingly infinite resources and multiple aliases/passports, assume the identity of a passenger on 815 or someone else entirely? Not to mention he’s clearly seen off island in the “future” as an owner and/or employee of a veterinary clinic where he tends to Sayid’s gunshot wound while instructing him to continue eliminating people from the list.

Regardless, let me assume for this post that the six are Jack, Kate, Hurley, Sayid, Sun and Aaron. Now, Aaron technically wasn’t a passenger of flight 815 but could still be considered a survivor by the public and media, so let me talk specifically about those other five. It’s been mentioned before that those five people “almost” didn’t get on the flight. You could argue that “fate” stepped in or the island / Jacob / Ben summoned them in a way. But what if they were never meant to be on the island.

Jack almost didn’t get on the flight because he did not make arrangements to transport his father’s body. Kate made no plans to be on the flight because she had not intended on being caught by the marshal chasing her. Hurley almost missed his flight, though financially it would have been no problem to schedule another should he be too late to board. Sayid nearly didn’t get on the flight when he was detained at the airport after leaving his bag with Shannon. Sun nearly didn’t get on the plane as she was planning to leave Jin at the airport and escape her seemingly loveless marriage.

Other passengers seemed to have no problem scheduling their flight, getting to and arriving at the airport, finding their way to the boarding area or stepping onto the plane. One could argue that circumstances led others to flight 815 – that there are no coincidences, but that could be said of anyone, anywhere, anytime. The fact is that none of the other passengers, though they may have meaningful backgrounds and unusual ties to the island or other 815 survivors, had any reasons “not” to get on flight 815.

Except Seth Norris… Seth was brought in as a last minute replacement pilot for flight 815, specifically, for Frank Lapidus. And so I’m finally to my point - isn’t it possible that Jack, Kate, Hurley, Sayid and Sun were never supposed to get on that plane? Frank, Charlotte, Daniel, Miles and Naomi (or perhaps another freighter fool we have or haven’t met) were the intended arrivals to the island via flight 815 and when they didn’t show up, the island made attempts to course correct. It brought them there, once again, this time via Widmore’s freighter, and once they arrived were “exchanged” for the Oceanic Five (Aaron not included). Of course, the only real information I have to go on is the flashbacks from “Confirmed Dead”. In order of their flashback appearances:

Daniel Faraday is seen clearly shaken up and disturbed by the discovery of flight 815 in the bottom of the ocean. There has been talk about the reflection of a “building” resembling the empire state building, but if you watch the episode in HD on ABC’s site, it’s clearly a reflection of the window behind Daniel, with its curtains hanging in an upside down V shape. Never mind that no such building exists, to my knowledge, in Essex, Massachusetts, a town of only 3267 people in the year 2000. I doubt much has changed in the 4 years since that census. Daniel claims he does not know why he is upset to learn of the plane’s discovery.

Miles is shown next, arriving at the location of his next job/scam. It’s unclear whether he has actual psychic/supernatural abilities, but it’s implied both here and later when he “speaks” with Naomi’s body. What is notable is that Miles pauses in his car to listen to the newscast about flight 815’s discovery. He briefly looks at himself in the rearview mirror then looks at the house he’s arrived at. He waits for the newscast to finish, then turns off the car. While not visibly distraught by the news of flight 815, he clearly shows interest in the news.

Next we see Charlotte arrive in Tunisia, apparently on some archeological expedition. She picks up a newspaper which has a cover story about the flight 815 discovery. Her associate asks “How many different languages do you have to read that in to believe that it’s true?” While not visibly shaken by the news, it’s implied that Charlotte’s been continually checking news sources in disbelief.

Frank Lapidus reveals that he was supposed to be the pilot of flight 815. It’s unclear yet why he didn’t fly the plane and how he ended up at a tourist trap in the Bahamas. Some suggest that his drinking was the cause. One thing is clear; Seth replaced him and was killed by the smoke monster shortly after the crash. Was Lapidus supposed to die? Or was Seth killed because he was “not” Lapidus? If so, why were the other “surrogates” not also killed? I can’t answer that yet.

Naomi is shown speaking with Matthew Abbadon. She is arguing about having to “baby-sit” Daniel, Miles, Charlotte and Frank, whom she refers to a head case, ghost buster, anthropologist and a drunk. Abbadon specifically states that she is to safely lead them to and from the island and that each person was specifically chosen for a reason.

Daniel and Frank are the most easily explained. Daniel is clearly emotional about the discovery of 815. Survivor syndrome is a simple explanation for his emotional state as well as not knowing exactly why he is upset other than having feelings of massive guilt. And Frank may be feeling guilty about having his long time friend, Seth, replace him as pilot on the flight. Most theories I’ve read involve Frank being fired from the Airline shortly before 815’s scheduled flight because of his alcoholism. While this is a simple explanation, it seems just as likely that Frank simply couldn’t make the flight and turned to drinking “after” the plane went missing.

Miles seems to be apathetic to the news of 815’s discovery, but he still pauses to listen to the rest of the newscast on the radio. Whether or not he has psychic abilities, which I believe he has, he’s still a scam artist to some degree, using a fake “paranormal investigation” device as a noise machine and conning people into paying for services he may or may not actually provide. I do not know why or how Miles might have avoided the doomed 815 flight but it could be explained later as not to make his and other freighter folks pasts too obvious.

Charlotte also has no direct connection to flight 815, but she does have an intense interest in the discovery of the wreckage. Even if she’s privy to information on the Dharma Initiative, as her discovery of the polar bear’s collar implies, it certainly does not mean she knows about the island. And even if she is aware of the island’s existence, it most definitely does not mean she would assume that 815 crashed on that very island, even if the wreckage had not been found.

And lastly, Naomi… well, again, I have no direct connection to 815 as this is still pretty early in the discovery of the freighter folks past to make any conclusive decisions. But Abbadon specifically scolds her during their meeting, insisting there are no survivors even though Naomi clearly believes it’s a possibility (or maybe even knows for certain). He says this in such a way as to imply that should Naomi and the others discover survivors, they should be disposed of… ensuring they’ll never contradict the recently found wreckage. He also says that her mission is to get the other freighter folks to the island and back safely, remarking that those four have been chosen for very specific reasons, and from that we can assume that Naomi is chosen for specific reasons as well. What we don’t know is by whom and for what reasons.

One thing is clear… Ben is off the island along with 6 other people who were on 815. He may not be able to return to the island due to a hostile takeover by the freighter folks or because of some failure in the way he was physically transported, ie submarine or boat. I suspect that the freighter mission fails and that Widmore, or whomever is behind the freighters attempts to reach the island are still trying to do so via other means, all while Ben and Sayid systematically exterminate the ranks of their newly perceived enemy.

Abbadon visits Hurley in the institution and asks, “Are they still alive?” We assume he’s talking about the other survivors of flight 815, but if he and his employer had access to the island, he would already know the answer to this question. So, I propose that he’s asking about the five people specifically chosen to “find” the island. And why were those five people so special? It may not be because of their occupations or relationships with island mythology, (ie Daniel’s time travel tech or Charlotte’s Dharma Initiative knowledge) but rather because they were originally supposed to be on that fateful flight.

No real answers here, just more questions…

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