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This theory is based on B. F. Skinner and Carl Jung by ProfOzone. You may wish to read it before continuing.

The numbers ultimately identify the function of the Swan Station in particular.

— ProfOzone

In another entry on this site I pointed out that synchronicity seems to be a concept at work in the show, and that, apparently, synchronicity is being harnessed by the Dharma Initiative to “save the world”. If synchronicity is treated as a scientific concept (and I think Lost is meant to be a science fiction show) then the logical extension of this idea is that there is some calculus one can employ to predict the future. This further suggests a mathematical formula and perhaps a computer simulation that can be used to administer the calculus. Some of you will recognize this plot device from other science fiction stories, such as Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation Series”. (In his books, the equation is called “psychohistory”.) Apparently, the creators of Lost have revealed that such an equation exists in the “Lost” universe. (They reveal this in “The Lost Experience” which I have not seen, only heard about.) Apparently, “the numbers” are factors in this equation as they apply to the ultimate demise of humankind. Change any one of the factors in the equation (any one of the values of “the numbers”) and you might avert disaster for the people of Earth.

Now this means that any given six-number sequence can represent a possible destiny for humanity. Which destiny do the numbers in Lost represent? A positive one? Or a negative one? How many possible positive ones or negative ones are there? We don’t know. But in Lost, the sequence “4 8 15 16 23 42” is clearly an important one.

Keep in mind, though, that whatever equation or simulation is used to predict the future, its results are subject to errors and paradoxes. The equation likely reveals probable futures rather than one set future, and those probabilities likely change frequently as the passage of time adds new data to the simulation’s initial conditions.

Knowing what the numbers represent in a broad sense gives us quite a lot of information, actually, but let’s reveal that information by following a logical path.

The most important factual question in regard to the numbers is, “Why are the numbers etched into the hatch?” This is the most important question because it’s really the only question regarding the numbers that hasn’t been answered by the show in any way. Why did Hurley play the numbers? He heard them from a guy who muttered them. Why’d the guy mutter them? He got them from a broadcast. How were they broadcast? Human beings entered them into a computer and transmitted them. Why were humans required to transmit them? Well, that question hasn’t been answered directly, but obviously there is something important about the numbers NOT being entered automatically, and there is some reason the “containment” of the electromagnetic energy begins to fail periodically. The “not automatically” part has to be more than just because the Dharma Initiative wanted to use Swan Station as a Skinner Box (in other words, they had a situation where a computer was doing mindless work and they simply saw an experimental opportunity and engineered the task for humans instead of machines) because the activity was being broadcast remotely; somebody other than the behavioral scientists needed to know the button was being pushed. More to the point, they needed to know that particular button was being pushed, and thus all the numbers had to be entered. Those particular numbers must have told the people off the island that the broadcast came from that particular hatch. Thus, the question becomes, “Why are the numbers associated with that particular hatch?” And this question, I believe, is functionally equivalent to asking why the numbers are etched on the outside of the hatch; that is, the numbers must designate the hatch in some fashion, and why is that?

The most obvious explanation seems to be that the Swan Station was primarily designed to help bring about OR suppress the particular future defined by the factors “4 8 15 16 23 42”. That is, the containment of the electromagnetic energy on the island for a given period of time was to bring about OR suppress a specific future predicted by the Valenzetti Equation. The numbers ultimately identify the function of the Swan Station in particular.

One possible reason the numbers were broadcast is because the Swan Station only needed to function for a set period of time (and then be destroyed) in order for the desired future to be manifested OR suppressed. Therefore, the containment had to be set to fail every so often, the time variable determined by a particular margin of error. A human had to reset it because at some point the reset had to fail, and the likelihood that a human would fail at the appropriate moment was more probable than the likelihood that an automated system would. (Remember, the precise, optimal moment when the station should fail might change over time.) The broadcast of the numbers would tell the receivers of the broadcast if the Swan Station in particular was still functioning, if it was no longer functioning, and, more importantly, if it ceased functioning too early or continued functioning too long.

Ben obviously wanted the station to cease functioning. He tricked John into not pressing the button. The logical reasons for this are: the station functioned too long according to the Dharma Initiative; Ben wanted the future represented by the numbers to be realized OR suppressed for his own reasons; or the station’s role in the future of humankind was no longer relevant either way and Ben wanted the station destroyed for reasons that only pertain to the islands (this is quite likely, since the numbers broadcast was allowed to be hijacked by Rousseau and remain so for 16 years). It remains a question as to whether or not Ben intended for Desmond to activate the emergency measures, and it’s impossible to know right now what would have happened had Desmond not done so. (There is a contradiction in the show related to this; I’ll note it below.) Likewise, it’s too early to say what motive Ben had in encouraging the destruction of the station.

Also in another post, I suggest that some genetic experimentation has been suggested. It’s easy to imagine that one of the factors in the Valenzetti Equation pertains to human genetics/evolution.

“Many universe” theories are consistent with this conception of the show’s plot, as any equation will only show one a set number of possible futures, each actually representing distinct probable realities. The Others’ interest in Walt was his ability to arrive at the universe he wanted, unlike the rest of us who typically have to wait to see which reality will come to be, many times after we’ve put a great deal of effort into trying to bring a very different reality about. The Others are very interested in arriving at a very specific reality and avoiding several other less desirable ones.

This also reveals why the Others are so keen on manipulating people to want certain things. (Ben told Jack he wanted to get Jack to want to help him.) If they can get people on the island to want their reality, apparently that increases the probability that the reality they desire will actually come to pass. The island itself seems to facilitate this process of creating the reality one wants (or needs).

But you can only manipulate people who don’t already know what they want. Thus troubled people with pasts that are fraught with conflict are most valuable, and as soon as a person knows what he or she wants and has no inner conflict (as happened with Mr. Echo) he or she can no longer be useful, and thus he or she is subject to destruction by the Black Mist (which, this suggests, is programmed to seek out suitable subjects for study or manipulation and discard the rest).

This, anyway, is what I think can be discerned from what the show has revealed so far. Some of it could be reaching a bit. We’ll have to see.

(The contradiction I alluded to above is this: In episode 3.7, it’s suggested that one reason Ben is being helped by Jack and not somebody “on the outside” is because of the communications issues that resulted from the Swan Station being destroyed. However, Ben suggested that the entire reason Jack was abducted was because Ben wanted Jack to help him, and the abduction occurred just before the Swan Station was destroyed. If Jack was abducted to help, but that help was only required because of communications problems, then Jack’s abduction should have come AFTER the Swan Station was destroyed. One way to resolve this contradiction is to posit that Ben knew the Station would be destroyed in the particular way it was destroyed, and that he chose to allow Jack to become his only hope of survival rather than have his health problem addressed before communications became disrupted. All of this suggests that Ben foresaw everything that occurred in episodes six and seven, and those events served his purposes in some fashion. Of course, another way to resolve the contradiction is to posit that Ben lied by suggesting that he abducted Jack primarily for the purposes of the surgery. Or, perhaps, Ben abducted Jack so he’d have a “back-up” plan for addressing his problem if something went wrong, and the destruction of the Swan Station forced him to activate “plan B” sooner than he’d imagined he might have to. All intriguing possibilities.)

Key characters

Short Name	Full Name	Episodes	Theories
Ben	Benjamin Linus	3.20, 4.9, & 3” href=”/episodes/theres-no-place-home-parts-2-3/”>4.13	1714

Key episodes

#	Title	Aired	Central character	Theories
3.7	Not In Portland	2-7-2007	Juliet	146

Key locations

Theme	Relevant Episodes	Theories
The Swan station	2.20, 2.23, 2.14, 2.17, 2.1, 2.2, 1.11, 3.3, 3.8	461

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